U.S holiday sales growth to slow down in 2022: Deloitte report

By

Jennifer Braun

Published
Sep 15, 2022

U.S. holiday retail sales are likely to increase this holiday season, but at a lower growth rate compared to 2021. 

According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, holiday sales will increase between 4 and 6 percent, totalling $1.45 to $1.47 trillion during the November to January timeframe. That’s compared to 2021, where holiday sales grew by 15.1 percent in the same period, reaching $1.39 trillion. 

Deloitte also forecasted that e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8 to 14.3 percent, year-over-year, during the 2022-2023 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $260 billion and $264 billion this season, up from 8.4 percent totalling $231 billion in sales, seen in 2021.

Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster said in a statement that the lower projected growth is in line with the overall slowdown in the economy this year. 

"The lower projected growth for the 2022 holiday season reflects the slowdown in the economy this year. Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane," said Bachman. 

Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, added that inflation is equally weighing on consumer demand.

"As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season," said Handrinos. 

”Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending. Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season."